NATIONAL BESTSELLER NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China--and how it might be prevented. China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides's Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries "great again," the seventeenth case was looking grim--it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides's Trap--and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON "Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around." -- President Joe Biden "[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing." -- Boston Globe "[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book."-- New York Times Book Review

A Sunday Times and FT Book of the Year

When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, the most likely outcome is war.

In this razor-sharp analysis, Harvard scholar Graham Allison examines the phenomenon known as Thucydides’s Trap, which is currently playing out between the world’s two biggest superpowers: the US and China.

Through uncanny historical parallels, Destined for War shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past ― and what painful steps international leaders can and must take to avoid disaster.

Grand strategist and founder of modern Singapore offers key insights and controversial opinions on globalization, geopolitics, economic growth, and democracy.When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, and CEOs listen. Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House; British prime ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair have recognized his wisdom; and business leaders from Rupert Murdoch to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, have praised his accomplishments. This book gathers key insights from interviews, speeches, and Lee's voluminous published writings and presents them in an engaging question and answer format. Lee offers his assessment of China's future, asserting, among other things, that "China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S." He affirms the United States' position as the world's sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India's future, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy. Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This little book belongs on the reading list of every world leader--including the one who takes the oath of office on January 20, 2013.

At the dawn of a new era, this book brings together leading activists, policy-makers and critics to reflect upon fifty years of attempts to improve respect for human rights. Authors include President Jimmy Carter, who helped inject human rights concerns into US policy; Wei Jingsheng, who struggled to do so in China; Louis Henkin, the modern "father" of international law, and Richard Goldstone, the former chief prosecutor for the Yugoslav and Rwandan war crimes tribunals. A half-century since the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights the time is right to assess how policies and actions effect the realization of human rights and to point to new directions and challenges that lie ahead. A must have for everyone in the human rights community and the broader foreign policy community as well as the reader who is increasingly aware of the visibility of human rights concerns on the public stage.

At the dawn of a new era, this book brings together leading activists, policy-makers and critics to reflect upon fifty years of attempts to improve respect for human rights. Authors include President Jimmy Carter, who helped inject human rights concerns into US policy; Wei Jingsheng, who struggled to do so in China; Louis Henkin, the modern "father" of international law, and Richard Goldstone, the former chief prosecutor for the Yugoslav and Rwandan war crimes tribunals. A half-century since the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights the time is right to assess how policies and actions effect the realization of human rights and to point to new directions and challenges that lie ahead. A must have for everyone in the human rights community and the broader foreign policy community as well as the reader who is increasingly aware of the visibility of human rights concerns on the public stage.

As a bridge between the East and West, a pole of stability in the Balkans, and a Mediterranean crossroads, Greece could play a significant role in the post-Cold War world. But Greece's performance in domestic and international policy falls short of this promise. The essays in The Greek Paradox look at some of the reasons for this gap and suggest possible political and economic reforms.The contributors, both scholars and policymakers, examine a range of contemporary issues in the Balkans and on NATO's southern flank. The essays shed light on nation building, political and economic development, modernization, and post-Cold War international relations.Contributors: Graham T. Allison, Gianna Angelopoulos-Daskalaki, P. Nikiforos Diamandouros, Michael S. Dukakis, Misha Glenny, Dimitris Keridis, F. Stephen Larrabee, Kalypso Nicolaidis, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Alexis Papahelas, Elizabeth Prodromou, Monteagle Stearns, Constantine Stephanopoulos, Stavros B. Thomadakis, Basilios E. Tsingos, Loukas Tsoukalis, Susan Woodward.CSIA Studies in International Security"

The twentieth century witnessed an explosion of new nations carved out of existing ramshackle empires and multiethnic states. Many observers contend that the creation of new states will continue indefinitely, with the two hundred of today becoming the four hundred of tomorrow as more groups seek independence. This provocative and compelling book explores the impact of globalization and terrorism on this trend, arguing convincingly that the era of national self-determination has finally come to an end. Examining the forces that determine the emergence of new nation-states, the distinguished contributors consider a rich array of specific cases from the Middle East, Asia, North America, Europe, and Russia where new states could be created. They contend that globalization, rather than expanding such opportunities, is not as friendly to new weak states with limited resources as it is to established rich nations. Given the vast sums circulating in the world market, few fledgling nations can be financially independent. They find it more prudent to shelter within the protective embrace of existing federations. Equally, governments of federal states can induce restive petitioners_such as Quebec, Scotland, and the Basques_to remain inside the metropolitan boundary through a system of tangible restraints and rewards. Those who reject the benefits, such as rebels in Chechnya and Aceh, will fail in their bids for independence. Taiwan_poised on a knife-edge between integration with China and independence_faces a series of costs and diminished returns if it seeks full statehood. Finally, terrorism has lost its legitimacy as a technique for gaining independence in the eyes of the international community. Despite the stall in new state formation, there has been no sign of successful military or imperial expansion by established countries toward consolidation into fewer, larger national units. Neither aggression by regional states_such as the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990, nor intervention_such as the U.S. occupation of Iraq in 2003, are likely to succeed. On balance, the book concludes, discontented national movements will have to find ways to exist within current geopolitical boundaries.

The twentieth century witnessed an explosion of new nations carved out of existing ramshackle empires and multiethnic states. Many observers contend that the creation of new states will continue indefinitely, with the two hundred of today becoming the four hundred of tomorrow as more groups seek independence. This provocative and compelling book explores the impact of globalization and terrorism on this trend, arguing convincingly that the era of national self-determination has finally come to an end. Examining the forces that determine the emergence of new nation-states, the distinguished contributors consider a rich array of specific cases from the Middle East, Asia, North America, Europe, and Russia where new states could be created. They contend that globalization, rather than expanding such opportunities, is not as friendly to new weak states with limited resources as it is to established rich nations. Given the vast sums circulating in the world market, few fledgling nations can be financially independent. They find it more prudent to shelter within the protective embrace of existing federations. Equally, governments of federal states can induce restive petitioners such as Quebec, Scotland, and the Basques to remain inside the metropolitan boundary through a system of tangible restraints and rewards. Those who reject the benefits, such as rebels in Chechnya and Aceh, will fail in their bids for independence. Taiwan poised on a knife-edge between integration with China and independence faces a series of costs and diminished returns if it seeks full statehood. Finally, terrorism has lost its legitimacy as a technique for gaining independence in the eyes of the international community. Despite the stall in new state formation, there has been no sign of successful military or imperial expansion by established countries toward consolidation into fewer, larger national units. Neither aggression by regional states such as the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990, nor intervention such as the U.S. occupation"

This book outlines a new strategy that applies the organizing principles of progressive internationalism-national strength, free enterprise, liberal democracy, U.S. leadership for collective security-to the new challenge of defeating Islamist extremism. That plan, as set forth in detail in this book, revolves around five progressive imperatives for national security: * First, we must marshal all of America's manifold strengths, starting with our military power but going well beyond it, for the struggle ahead. * Second, we must rebuild America's alliances, because democratic solidarity is one of our greatest strategic assets. * Third, we must champion liberal democracy in deed, not just in rhetoric, because a freer world is a safer world. * Fourth, we must renew U.S. leadership in the international economy and rise to the challenge of global competition. * Fifth, we must summon from the American people a new spirit of national unity and service. In sum, the progressive strategy detailed in this book takes advantage of all of our country's strengths, not just the big stick of military power. It seeks to unite, not polarize and divide, our people. It links the defense of liberty abroad with a new determination to press progressive reforms at home. It calls on all Americans-not just our men and women in uniform-to share the burden of prevailing in what is likely to be a long, arduous and costly struggle. Published in cooperation with the Progressive Policy Institute

Most world leaders agree that nuclear terrorism represents the gravest international security challenge today. Many scholars and practitioners, however, argue that the United States remains ill-prepared to cope with this serious and real threat. What role should the U.S. play in confronting and combating this danger? Is nuclear terrorism preventable? What steps have the U.S. already taken to prevent a nuclear catastrophe and what future steps should the U.S. government take? Esteemed scholars, scientists and policymakers address these crucial questions from all sides - strategic, tactical, ideological, and technical. Employing several vantage points, this special issue of The ANNALS clarifies and assesses the threat of a nuclear terrorist attack and examines possible solutions for preventing such a catastrophic event. The papers in this volume take a comprehensive historical look at the development of the threat of nuclear terrorism, and assesses how that threat has changed over time. The highly distinguished list of contributors to this thought-provoking issue provides readers with an authoritative overview of this critical and timely topic. Students, scholars, policymakers, and practitioners will find this collection a valuable resource for understanding the current threat level of nuclear terrorism as well as practical recommendations for reducing the risk of a nuclear terrorist attack.

The debate over national security and arms control has focused primarily on weapons more or fewer weapons, different kinds of weapons. Hawks tend to see the immediate cause of war as one-sided weakness that tempts an aggressive adversary. For Doves, the primary cause of war lies in arms races that become provocative."